Eight ever, nine never?
Bridge Column for February 11, 2001, By HARVEY BERNSTEIN
Both sides vulnerable.  West deals.
                              NORTH
                              S: K 9 4 2          
                              H: A 2         
                              D: A 6 5 4     
                              C: A 7 5   
            WEST                             EAST
            S: 6                             S: Q 8 7        
            H: K Q J 9 8 6 5                 H: 10 4       
            D: J 2                           D: Q 10 9 8          
            C: 10 6 4                        C: Q J 9 8     
                              SOUTH                         
                              S: A J 10 5 3 
                              H: 7 3        
                              D: K 7 3     
                              C: K 3 2    
          The Bidding://
                   WEST   NORTH     EAST   SOUTH                  
                    3H   Double     Pass    4S  
                   Pass    Pass     Pass
     West places the king of hearts on the table and declarer
pauses to take stock of his contract.  There is a potential loser
in each suit and the only suit that offers any hope of avoiding a
loser is the trump suit, spades.
     Declarer wins the ace of hearts and plays the king of
spades.  Both defenders follow.  The two of spades comes next and
West plays the eight.  The contract hinges on the card that South
plays. Looking at all four hands, we know it is correct to
finesse, but of course, in real life you have to be able to work
it out without seeing the opponents cards.
     I can't even tell you the number of times that I have heard
experienced players say "eight ever, nine never" and play the ace
in this situation.  They are referring to an old saying that
indicates you should not finesse for the queen when you hold a
total of nine cards in the suit in question.  Supposedly, with
only four cards outstanding, the queen will drop singleton or
doubleton often enough to validate this approach.
     The problem is that you can't consider the suit without
looking at the whole hand.  Here, we know that West started with
seven hearts and one spade.  He has five unknown cards.  East is
known to have started with two hearts and two spades.  He has
nine unknown cards.  From that we could conclude that East is a 9
to 5 favorite to hold the queen of spades.
     I would think that the odds at this point favor the finesse,
in spite of the nine card spade holding.  In this hand, it is the
only winning play.
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Bernstein is a free-lance writer in Solon.